2014年11月19日讯 /生物谷BIOON/ --似乎今年生物医药领域的大部分头条都集中在辉瑞和阿斯利康这对"冤家"身上。今年早些时候，阿斯利康公司坚决反对辉瑞公司报价1180亿美元收购兼并阿斯利康的邀约。为了给投资者以信心，阿斯利康公司CEO Pascal Soriot放话，到2017年，公司的所有产品销售额将增长75%。
现在看来， Pascal Soriot的这句话可能真的会变成现实。
本周二是阿斯利康公司的企业分析日，公司透露目前公司的研发部门正在进行的临床三期研究共有14个，其中8-10个药物预计将于未来两年内被批准上市。为了实现公司营收年平均两位数的增长，阿斯利康公司着力将公司的肿瘤研发部门打造为继心脏病药物Brilinta、糖尿病药物、呼吸系统疾病疗法、新兴市场和日本市场之后的第六大公司支柱。而目前这一努力正在逐渐变为现实。仅阿斯利康公司治疗肺癌药物AZD9291在明年就将为阿斯利康公司带来约30亿美元的收入。另一种抗肿瘤药物Olaparib预计在明年上市，分析人士预计其销售额可达20亿美元。更别提阿斯利康公司正处于临床三期的PD-L1药物MEDI4736，这一药物一旦研究成功，其年销售额将达到惊人的65亿美元。这些都将帮助阿斯利康公司的年销售额在2023年突破450亿美元大关。
视线回到6个月前，当辉瑞的1180亿美元收购案最终被否决后，按照规定辉瑞公司有6个月的犹豫期。在这一段时间内，辉瑞公司可以提出新的修改报价。本月的26日则是这一犹豫期的最后期限。Woodford Investment Management公司是阿斯利康公司背后的大股东之一，公司高管预测辉瑞在这一期限之前提出新收购方案的可能性为50%。Woodford Investment Management公司仍然认为独立的阿斯利康公司也能够发展的很好。
事实上，目前的所有因素都对辉瑞公司收购阿斯利康不利。一方面是英美两国政府对这一跨国收购案的态度十分慎重；另一方面，似乎对辉瑞来说，市场上现在还有一些其他选择，例如Actavis公司。不过，具体结果如何恐怕还要等到11月26日才能揭晓。
详细英文报道：
Rounding out year two of CEO Pascal Soriot's rescue mission at AstraZeneca ($AZN), the U.K. drugmaker believes it has the pipeline assets to fuel double-digit submissions and approvals by 2017, reaffirming its promise to pump up sales by 75% as former suitor Pfizer ($PFE) creeps back into the frame.
At its analyst day Tuesday, AstraZeneca spelled out its case for staying the course, pointing to a pipeline of 14 Phase III drugs that will make for 8 to 10 approvals over the next two years. Leading the way is the company's resurgent oncology unit, whose three leading medicines have peak sales potential north of $12 billion, management has said.
Cancer treatments represent AstraZeneca's planned 6th pillar of growth, Soriot said, joining the heart drug Brilinta, diabetes drugs, respiratory therapies, emerging markets and Japan in the company's plot to deliver annual revenue above $45 billion by 2023. And things are moving quickly: AstraZeneca moved up the planned filing date for AZD9291, a lung cancer treatment tabbed to bring in $3 billion at its peak, to the second quarter of next year. Olaparib, a cancer therapy the company believes has $2 billion in annual potential, is up for global approvals in early 2015, while MEDI4736, a PD-L1 therapy the company said can top out at $6.5 billion a year, is slated to enter Phase III around the same time.
Looming over all that optimism is Pfizer, whose failed $118 billion overture earlier this year led AstraZeneca to take the uncommon tack of assigning dollar values to in-development assets in the first place. Under the U.K.'s takeover code, Pfizer's 6-month lock-out period expires on Nov. 26, freeing the U.S. giant to make a second approach if it so chooses.
Neil Woodford, whose Woodford Investment Management is among AstraZeneca's largest shareholders, figures there's a 50-50 chance Pfizer will return to the table with another--presumably sweetened--offer. But he, like management, believes the company's brightest future is a solitary one, writing that "AstraZeneca's promising pipeline stands a much better chance of fulfilling its potential if it remains independent rather than in the hands of a potential acquirer."
And a few things have swung in AstraZeneca's favor since Pfizer's last offensive collapsed in the spring. For one, the U.S. Treasury has tightened regulations on stateside companies looking for overseas buys that would lower their tax bills, a move that convinced AbbVie ($ABBV) to abandon its planned $55 billion acquisition of Ireland's Shire ($SHPG).
Furthermore, some analysts point to Pfizer's recent behavior as a sign that it has perhaps moved on. Much of AstraZeneca's initial allure stemmed from the aforementioned oncology pipeline, as Pfizer has long been on the outside looking in on Big Pharma's race to develop new immunotherapies for cancer. On Monday, however, the company made a sweeping effort to change that, signing a deal worth nearly $3 billion--including a record $850 million up front--that will cut it in on MerckKGaA's immuno-oncology program. The size and shape of that agreement suggest Pfizer may be preparing for a future without the likes of MEDI4736.